Rising Sea Levels and Small Islands

In the 21st century, climate change consequences for small islands include sea-level rise (SLR), tropical and extratropical cyclones, increasing air and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall patterns (high confidence; robust evidence, high agreement).

Small islands do not have uniform climate change risk profiles (high confidence). Rather, their high diversity in both physical and human attributes and their response to climate-related drivers means that climate change impact will vary from one island region to another, and between countries of the same region. In the past, this diversity in potential response has not always been adequately integrated into adaptation planning.

In the last few decades, many small islands have undergone substantial changes in human settlement patterns, socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Those changes may have masked any clear evidence of the effects of climate change like on many small islands, coastal erosion has been widespread and has adversely affected important tourist facilities, settlements, utilities, and infrastructure. Specific case studies from islands in the Pacific, Indian Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean have shown that human impact play an important role in this erosion, as do episodic extreme events that have long been part of the natural cycle of events affecting small islands.